I. [Heidi Houston] Introduction
A new, multi-scale framework for understanding the coupled phenomena of
slow slip and low-frequency seismic radiation in Cascadia. As a
consequence of the major investments in instrumentation and focused
research in Cascadia, particularly in the last 5 years, we can now view
these coupled phenomena over an unprecedented range of temporal and
spatial scales. Emerging findings about slow slip and low-frequency
seismic radiation in Cascadia are revealing:
A. similarities and differences with regions
elsewhere in the world.
B. spatial coherence implying underlying
organization over distances of kilometers to the entire span of the
subduction zone.
C. significant temporal variations in propagation
velocities, durations of energy release, etc. range from minutes to
weeks.
D. the true degree of repeatability and periodicity.
E. tantalizing correlations with when and where
earthquakes occur.
II. Background
A. [Heidi Houston]
Cartoon illustrating the ‘basics’
B. [Heidi Houston]
Implications for basic science. What hypotheses about underlying
physical processes can we now test?
i. Frictional model predictions.
ii. [Simon Peacock] Postulated roles of
fluids.
C. [David Schmidt]
Implications for earthquake hazards.
III. The spatial and temporal evolution of slow slip and tremor from
2007 and beyond.
A. [Ken Creager,
Evelyn Roeloffs, Tim Melbourne] Multi-year, Cascadia-wide
evolution of slow slip and tremor. Comparison to elsewhere (e.g.
Japan), implies processes coherent over 100s of km, analogous to how
earthquakes start/stop?
i. 2007-2008 Time-history of
tremor and slow slip from Mendocino to northern Vancouver Island
ii. 2007-2008 Map with slip
and time/color-coded tremor?
B. [Ken Creager,
Evelyn Roeloffs, Tim Melbourne] A high-resolution look at the
2008 ETS event. Kilometer-scale heterogeneity, variability in
propagation velocities, degree to which tremor tracks slip or visa
versa, parallels with earthquake ‘patchiness’.
i. Map showing migration of
tremor constrained by Big-Skitter array, time-series of slip from
strain meter data, etc.
IV. What we now know.
A. Patterns
are recurrent, but with variability that is becoming quantifiable.
B. [Simon Peacock,
Michael Bostock] High pore-pressures would explain triggered and
tidally modulated tremor and elevated Vp/Vs ratios. The former also
could imply critically stressed conditions.
C. Correlation
exists between moment release in slow slip and radiated seismically
D. Tremor is a
likely robust proxy for slow slip; detectable slow slip always
accompanied by tremor
E. Earthquakes
and tremor seem to be anti-correlated spatially.
V. What we now know that we wouldn’t ever have known without the
investments of the last 5 years.
A. [John Vidale,
Simon Peacock] Slip and tremor are ‘patchy’ on scales of tens of
km, activity migrates both smoothly and in jumps
B. [Heidi Houston]
The same menagerie of low-frequency radiating seismic events (LFEs,
VLFs, etc.) occur in Cascadia as in Japan
C. Slip and
tremor occur beneath Oregon.
D. [John Vidale]
Tremor likely occurs all the time at some level.
E. Radiating low frequency seismic events likely
have limited maximum sizes but no lower limit.
F. [Paul Bedrosian]
Map of instrumentation (likely not to include in a paper, but for our
own use).
VI. What we now know we don’t know (or know well).
A. [Michael Bostock]
What and where is the plate interface? How localized is slip on this
interface?
B. [Simon Peacock]
How are the tremor sources distributed in depth?
C. How much
energy is released seismically and what fraction of the accumulating
moment budget does it represent? How to define ‘size’ for seismically
manifest ‘events’?
VII. Future directions/questions
A. What
controls scale; limits the size and heterogeneity of slow slip and low
frequency seismic events?
B. What do
these phenomena tell us about the seismogenic potential of the Cascadia
interface (i.e. about plate coupling)
C. Are there
‘communications’ with crustal faulting and seismicity?
D. Do very
long-duration transient occur?