Publications (underline is student/postdoc) In preparation: Proistosescu, C., K. C. Armour, G. H. Roe, P. Huybers, 2019: Combined hierarchical assessment of climate sensitivity from models and observations. In preparation. Roe, G.H., K. Armour, M. Baker, D.S. Battisti, A. Donohoe, N. Feldl, X. Liu, B. Markle, C. Proistosescu, and N. Siler, 2019. Energetic and heat-engine constraints on the spatial patterns of the mean and perturbed climate. In preparation. Roe, G.H., and D.S. Battisti, 2019: Knowability and no ability in climate and earth sciences. In preparation. Bonan, D., K.C. Armour, and G.H. Roe, N. Feldl, N. Siler, 2019: Energetic constraints on hydrologic climate change. In preparation. Proistosescu, C., K.C. Armour, G.H. Roe, and P.J. Huybers, 2019: When will we be committed to crossing critical temperature thresholds? In preparation. Stuart-Smith, R.F., G.H. Roe, S. Li, and M.R. Allen, 2019: Anthropogenic contribution to the retreat of Palcaraju glacier (Cordillera Blanca, Peru) and glacial lake outburst flood risk. In preparation. Siler, N, A. Bailey. G.H. Roe, D. Noone, and C. Buizert, 2019: A simple framework for understanding the relationship between water isotopes and climate. In preparation. Huston, A, N. Siler, G.H. Roe, Erin Pettit, and N. Steiger, 2019: Understanding drivers of glacier length variability over the last millennium. In preparation. Submitted: Donohoe, A., K.C. Armour, G.H. Roe, D.S. Battisti, 2019: The partitioning of meridional heat transport from the Last Glacial Maximum to CO2 quadrupling in coupled climate models. In review, J. Climate. Christian, J.E, A. Robel, C. Proistosescu, G.H. Roe, M.R. Koutnik, and K. Christianson 2019: The contrasting response of outlet glaciers to interior and ocean forcing. In review, The Cryosphere. C. Proistosescu, Battisti, D.S, K.C. Armour, G.H. Roe, 2019: Global climate sensitivity controls regional warming uncertainty. In preparation. Published/in press: Robel, A.A., H. Serrousi, and G.H. Roe, 2019: Marine ice sheet instability amplifies fat-tailed uncertainty in future sea level projections. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. Armour, K.C., N. Siler, A. Donohoe, and G.H. Roe, 2019: Meridional atmospheric heat transport constrained by energetics and mediated by large-scale diffusion. J. Climate., 32, 3655–3680. (pdf) Markle, B., E. Steig, G.H. Roe, and G. Winckler, 2018: Concomitant variability in high-latitude aerosols, water isotopes, and the hydrologic cycle. Nature Geosciences. 10.1038/s41561-018-0210-9 (pdf) Robel, A.A., G.H. Roe, M. Hasselhoff, 2018: Response of marine-terminating glaciers to forcing: time scales, sensitivities, instabilities and stochastic dynamics. J.G.R. Earth Surface Processes. doi10.1029/2018JF004709 (pdf) Bonan, D., K.C. Armour, G.H. Roe, N. Feldl, and N. Siler, 2018: Explaining the spread in climate model predictions using a moist energy balance model. Geophys Res. Lett., 10.1029/2018GL079429 (pdf) AGU Research Spotlight (EOS link) Siler, N., and G.H. Roe, and K.C. Armour, 2018: Insights into the zonal-mean response of the hydrologic cycle to global warming from a diffusive energy balance model. J Climate, 31, 7481-7493. (pdf) Siler, N., G.H. Roe, K.C. Armour, and N. Feldl, 2018: Revisiting the surface energy perspective on the sensitivity of global precipitation to climate change. Climate Dynamics, doi:10.1007/s00382-018-4359-0. (pdf). Proistosescu, C., K.C. Armour, A. Donohoe, G.H. Roe, M. Stuecker, and C. Bitz, 2018: Radiative Feedbacks From Stochastic Variability in Surface Temperature and Radiative Imbalance. Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1029/2018GL077678 (pdf). AGU Research Spotlight (EOS link) Christian, J.E., G.H. Roe, M.R. Koutnik, 2018: Committed retreat: controls on glacier disequilibrium in a warming climate. J. Glaciology, doi: 10.1017/jog.2018.57. (pdf) Dilmen, D., G.H. Roe., Y. Wei., and V.V. Titov, 2018: The role of near-shore bathymetry during tsunami inundation in a reef-island setting: a case study of Tutuila Island. Pure and Appl. Geophys., 10.1007/s00024-018-1769-1. (pdf) Barth, A.M., P.U. Clark, J. Clark, G.H. Roe, S.A. Marcott, A.M. McCabe, M.W. Caffee, F. He, J.K. Cuzzone, and P. Dunlop, 2017: Persistent millennial-scale glacier fluctuations in Ireland between 24,000 and 10,000 years ago. Geology, doi:10.1130/G39796.1 (pdf) Liu, X., D.S. Battisti, and G.H. Roe, 2017: What determines the meridional heat transport: insights from varying rotation rate experiments. J. Climate, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0745.1 (pdf). Huybers, K.M., G.H. Roe, H. Conway, 2017: Differential stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Annals of Glaciology. doi:10.1017/aog.2017.9 (pdf). Herla, F., G.H. Roe., and B. Marzeion, 2017: Ensemble statistics of a geometric glacier length model. Annals of Glaciology. doi: 10.1017/aog.2017.15 (pdf) Shugar, D.H., J.J. Clague, J.L. Best, C. Schoof, M.J. Willis, L. Copeland, G.H. Roe, 2017: River piracy and drainage basin reorganiziation led by climate-driven glacier retreat. Nature Geoscience, doi 10.1038/ngeo2932. (pdf), (supplementary) White, R.H., D.S. Battisti, and G.H. Roe, 2017: Mongolian mountains matter most: implications of the latitude and shape of Asian orography on the winter Pacific jet stream. J. Climate, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0401.1 (pdf) Roe, G.H., M.B. Baker, F. Herla, 2017: Centennial glacier retreat as categorical evidence of regional climate change. Nature Geoscience, doi:10.1038/ngeo2863. link, supplementary, Analysis Steiger, N.J., E.J. Steig, S.G. Dee, G.H. Roe, and G.J. Hakim, 2017: Climate reconstruction using data assimilation of water-isotope ratios from ice cores. J. Geophys. Res: Atmospheres, doi:10.1002/2016JD026011. (pdf) Medwedeff, W., and G.H. Roe, 2017: Trends and variability in the global dataset of glacier mass balance. Clim Dyn. DOI 10.1007/s00382-016-3253-x. (pdf)(Supplementary_Spreadsheet). (highlighted research in Nature Climate Change link) Christian, J., N. Siler, M. Koutnik, and G.H. Roe, 2016: Identifying dynamically induced variability in glacier mass balance records. J. Climate, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0128.1. (pdf) Roe, G.H., Q. Ding, and D.S. Battisti, P. Molnar, M.K. Clark, and C.N. Garzione, 2016: A modeling study of the response of Asian summertime climate to the largest geologic changes of the past 50 Ma. J. Geophys. Res. 121, 5453-5470. (pdf). Roe, G.H., and M.B. Baker, 2016: The response of glaciers to climatic persistence. J. Glaciology, DOI: 10.1017/jog.2016.4 (pdf). Roe, G.H., N. Feldl, K.C. Armour, Y.-T. Hwang, D.M.W. Frierson, 2015: Regional climate predictability from regional feedbacks. Nature Geoscience, doi:10.1038/ngeo2346. (pdf)(supplementary) Dilmen, D.I., V.V. Titov, and G.H. Roe, 2015: Evaluation of the relationship between coral damage and tsunami dynamics; a case study for the 2009 Samoa Tsunami. Pure and Appl. Geophys., DOI 10.1007/s00024-015-1158-y (pdf). Huybers, K.M., S.B. Rupper, and G.H. Roe, 2015: Lake level response to natural and forced variability, a case study of Great Salt Lake. Climate Dynamics. 10.1007/s00382-015-2798-4 (pdf) Battisti, D.S, Q. Ding, and G.H. Roe, 2014: A coherent pan-Asian climate and isotopic response to precessional forcing. J. Geophys. Res., 119(21), 11,997-12,020. (pdf) Roe., G.H., and M.B. Baker, 2014: Glacier response to climate perturbations: an accurate linear geometric model. J. Glaciology, 60, 670-684 (pdf). Siler, N., and G.H. Roe, 2014: How will orographic precipitation respond to surface warming? An idealized thermodynamic perspective. Geophys. Res. Lett. DOI: 10.1002/2013GL059095. (pdf) Feldl, N., D.M.W. Frierson, and G.H. Roe, 2014: The influence of regional feedbacks on circulation sensitivity. Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, doi:10.1002/2014GL059336. (pdf) Anderson, L.S., G.H. Roe, and R.S. Anderson, 2014: The effects of interannual climate variability on paleoclimate estimates derived from glacial moraines. Geology, 42, 55-58. (pdf) Steiger, N.J., G.J. Hakim, E.J. Steig, D.S. Battisti, and G.H. Roe, 2014: Assimilation of time-averaged pseudoproxies for climate reconstruction, Journal of Climate, 27, 426-441. (pdf) Burke, E.E., and G.H. Roe, 2014: The persistence of memory in the climatic forcing of glaciers, Climate Dynamics, DOI 10.1007/s00382-013-1758-0. (pdf) Roe, G.H., 2013: Costing the Earth: a numbers game, or a moral imperative? Weather, Climate, and Society, 5, 378-380. (pdf) Feldl, N. and G.H. Roe, 2013: The nonlinear and nonlocal nature of climate feedbacks. J. Climate, 26, 8289–8304. (pdf) Feldl, N. and G.H. Roe, 2013: Four perspectives on climate feedbacks. Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 4007–4011, doi:10.1002/grl.50711, (pdf) Armour, K.C., C.M. Bitz, and G.H. Roe, 2013: Time-varying climate sensitivity from regional feedbacks. J. Climate, 26, 4518-4534. (pdf) Penny, S.M., G.H. Roe, and D.S. Battisti, 2013: Interannual variability of the Pacific storm track. J. Climate, 23, 634-648. (pdf) Siler, N., G.H., Roe., and D.R. Durran, 2013: On the dynamical causes of variability in the rain-shadow effect: a case study of the Washington Cascades. Monthly Weath. Rev., 14, 122-139. (pdf) Yuan, D.-Y., Ge, W.-P., Chen, Z.-W., Li, C.-Y., Wang, Z.-C., Zhang, H.-P., Zhang, P.-Z., Zheng, D.-W., Zheng, W.-J., Craddock, W.H., Dayem, K.E., Duvall, A.R., Hough, B.G., Lease, R.O., Champagnac, J.-D., Burbank, D.W., Clark, M.K., Farley, K.A., Garzione, C.N., Kirby, E., Molnar, P., and Roe, G.H., 2013, The growth of northeastern Tibet and its relevance to large-scale continental geodynamics: A review of recent studies: Tectonics, 32, 1358-1370 Roe, G.H., and Y. Bauman, 2013: Should the climate tail wag the policy dog? Climatic Change, doi:10.1007/s10584-012-0582-6. (pdf) Headley, R., and G.H. Roe, and B. Hallet, 2012: Analytical solution of glacier-bed profiles, and comparison with observations, Earth. Plan. Sci. Lett., 317-318, 354–362. (pdf) (note an annoying typo: Eq. 8 should have an extra H on the right hand side) Headley, R., B. Hallet, and G.H. Roe, 2012: Comparing observed and modeled velocities in Seward throat: implications for erosion beneath fast-moving ice streams. Geophys. Res., 117, doi:10.1029/2011JF002291. (pdf). Roe, G.H., and K.C. Armour, 2011: How sensitive is climate sensitivity? Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, doi:10.1029/2011GL047913 (pdf) Roe, G.H., and M.B. Baker, 2011: Comment on “Another look at climate sensitivity”. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 18, 125-127, doi:10.5194/npg-18-125-2011. (pdf) Roe, G.H., 2011: What do glaciers tell us about climate variability and climate change? J Glaciology, 57, 567-578. (pdf) Armour, K., G.H. Roe, 2011: Climate commitment in an uncertain world. Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, doi:10.1029/2010GL045850. (pdf) Penny, S.M., G.H. Roe, and D.S. Battisti, 2011: Reply to Comments on "The Source of the Midwinter Suppression in Storminess over the North Pacific" J. Climate, DOI: 10.1175/2009JCLI2904.1 (pdf) Minder, J.R., D.R. Durran, and G.H. Roe, 2011: Mesoscale controls on mountainside snowline. J. Climate, 68, 2107-2127. (pdf) Pendergrass, A.G., G.J. Hakim, D.S. Battisti, and G.H. Roe, 2011: Coupled mixed-layer temperature predictability for climate reconstruction, J. Climate, 24, 2483-2499. (pdf) Feldl, N., G.H. Roe, 2011: Synoptic patterns associated with intense La Nina precipitation in the southwestern United States, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, doi:10.1029/2010GL045439. (pdf) Roe, G.H., and M.T. Brandon, 2011: Critical form and feedbacks in mountain belt dynamics: the role of rheology as a tectonic governor. J. Geophys. Res.,116, B02101, doi:10.1029/2009JB006571. (pdf) Feldl, N., and G.H. Roe, 2011: The shape of daily precipitation in the American West as a function of ENSO. J. Climate, 24, 2483-2499 (pdf) Roe, G.H., 2010: Knowability and no ability in climate projections. Report prepared for the EPA/DoE workshop on Integrated Assessment Models. National center for environmental economics report no. 0564. (pdf) Roe, G.H., and M.B. Baker, 2010: Notes on a catastrophe - a feedback analysis of snowball earth. J. Climate, 29, 4694-4703. (pdf) Dayem, K., P. Molnar, D.S. Battisti, and G.H. Roe, 2010: Lessons learned from the modern monsoon applied to the interpretation of paleoclimate records. Earth. Plan. Sci. Lett., 295, 219–230. (pdf) Penny, S.M., G.H. Roe, and D.S. Battisti, 2010: The source of the midwinter suppression of the Pacific storm track. J. Climate, 23, 634-648. (pdf) Roe, G.H. and M.A. O’Neal, 2009: The response of glaciers to intrinsic climate variability: observations and models of late Holocene variations. J. Glaciology, 55, 839-854. (pdf) Minder, J.R., G.H. Roe, and D.R. Montgomery, 2009: Spatial patterns of rainfall and landslide hazard, Water Resources Research, 45, W04419. (pdf) Huybers, K.M., and G.H. Roe, 2009: Glacier response to regional patterns of climate variability. J. Climate, 22, 4606-4620. (pdf) Baker, M.B., and G.H. Roe, 2009: The shape of things to come: why is climate change so predictable? J. Climate, 22, 4574-4589. (pdf) Rupper, S.B., G.H. Roe, and A. Gillespie, 2009: Spatial patterns of glacier advance and retreat in Central Asia in the Holocene. Quat. Res., 72, 337-346. (pdf) Minder, J.R. and G.H. Roe, 2009: Precipitation in mountainous terrain. To appear in the Encyclopedia of Snow, Ice and Glaciers. Edited by U.K. Haritashya, V. Singh, and P. Singh, Springer Press. (pdf) Roe, G.H., 2009: Feedbacks, time scales, and seeing red. Annual Reviews of Earth and Planetary Sciences, 37, 93-115. (pdf) Roe, G.H., 2008: On the paleoclimate interpretation of Chinese loess. Quat. Res., 71, 150–161. (pdf) Galewsky, J., and G.H. Roe, 2008: Climate over landscapes: The emerging links between geomorphology and the atmospheric sciences. White paper, submitted to the National Research Council. (pdf) Roe, G.H., K.X. Whipple, J.K. Fletcher, 2008: Feedbacks between climate, erosion, and tectonics in a critical wedge orogen. Amer. J. Sci., 308, 815–842. (pdf) Minder, J.R., D.R. Durran, and G.H. Roe, A.M. Anders, 2008: The climatology of small-scale orographic precipitation over the Olympic mountains: Patterns and processes. Quat. J. Roy. Met. Soc., 134, 817-839. (pdf) Rennert, K., G.H. Roe, C.M. Bitz, J. Putkonen, and D. Fischer, 2008: Rain-on-snow in the circumpolar Arctic: climatology and impacts. J. Climate, 22, 2302-2315. (pdf) Anders, A.M., and G.H. Roe, D.R. Montgomery, and B. Hallet, 2008: Coupled evolution of topography and orographic precipitation in varied climates. Geology, 36, 479-482. (pdf) Rupper, S.B., and G.H. Roe, 2008: Glacier changes and regional climate – a mass and energy balance approach. J. Climate, 21, 5384- 5401. (pdf) Owen, L.A., G. Thackray, R.S. Anderson, J. Briner, D. Kaufman, G.H. Roe, W. Pfeffer, and C. Yi, 2008: Integrated research on mountain glaciers: Current status, priorities and future prospects. Geomorphology, doi:10.1016/j.geomorph.2008.04.019. (pdf) Roe, G.H., and M.B. Baker, 2007: Why is climate sensitivity so unpredictable? Science, 318, 629-632. (pdf)(supplementary) Stolar, D.R., G.H. Roe, and S.D. Willett, 2007: Controls on the patterns of topography and erosion rate in a critical orogen at steady state, J. Geophys. Res., 112, F04002. (pdf) Tomkin, J.T., and G.H. Roe, 2007: The response of a glaciated critical wedge orogen to changes in climate. Earth. Plan. Sci. Lett., 262, 385–397. (pdf) Anders, A.M., G.H. Roe, D.R. Durran, and J.R. Minder, 2007: Small-scale spatial gradients in climatological precipitation on the Olympic Peninsula. J. Hydromet., 8, 1068-1081. (pdf) Roe, G.H., 2006: In defense of Milankovitch. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L24703, doi:10.1029/2006GL027817. (pdf) (auxiliary material) Roe, G.H., D. Stolar, and S.D. Willett, 2006: The sensitivity of a critical wedge orogen to climatic and tectonic forcing. in: S.D. Willett, N. Hovius, M. Brandon, D.M. Fisher, (Eds), Tectonics, Climate, and Landscape Evolution: Geological Society of America Special Paper 398, Geological Society of America, Boulder, CO, 227-239. (pdf) Roe, G.H., and M. Baker, 2006: Microphysical and geometrical controls on the pattern of orographic precipitation. J. Atmos. Sci., 63, 861–880. (pdf) Stolar, D., G.H. Roe, and S.D. Willett, 2006: Evolution of a critical orogen under various forcing scenarios: findings from a numerical sandbox. in: S.D. Willett, N. Hovius, M. Brandon, D.M. Fisher, (Eds), Tectonics, Climate, and Landscape Evolution: Geological Society of America Special Paper 398, Geological Society of America, Boulder, CO, 240-250. (pdf) Anders, A.M., G.H. Roe, B. Hallet, D.R. Montgomery, N. Finnegan, and J. Putkonen, 2006: Spatial patterns of precipitation and topography in the Himalaya. in: S.D. Willett, N. Hovius, M. Brandon, D.M. Fisher, (Eds), Tectonics, Climate, and Landscape Evolution: Geological Society of America Special Paper 398, Geological Society of America, Boulder, CO, 39-53. (pdf) Finnegan, N., G.H. Roe, D.R. Montgomery, B. Hallet, 2005: A scaling relationship for channel width in bedrock rivers. Geology, 33, 229-232. (pdf) Roe, G.H., 2005: Orographic precipitation. Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, 33, 645-671. (pdf) Anders, A.M., G.H. Roe, and D.R. Durran, 2004: Conference notebook Orographic precipitation and the form of mountain ranges. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 85, 498-499. (pdf) Roe, G.H., and E. J. Steig, 2004: On the characterization of millennial-scale climate variability. J. Climate, 17, 1929-1944. (pdf) Bitz, C.M., and G.H. Roe, 2004: A physical explanation for the high rate of sea-ice thinning in the Arctic Ocean. J. Climate, 17, 3623-3632. (pdf) Rupper, S., E.J. Steig, and G.H. Roe, 2004: On the relationship between snow accumulation at Mt. Logan, Yukon, and climate variability in the North Pacific. J. Climate, 17, 4724-4739. (pdf) Roe, G.H., D.R. Montgomery, and B. Hallet, 2003: Orographic climate feedbacks on the relief of mountain ranges. Journal of Geophysical Research, 108, doi:10.1029/2001JB001521. (pdf) Putkonen, J., and G.H. Roe, 2003: Rain-on-snow events, soil temperatures, and the sensitivity of ungulates to climate change. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, doi: 10.1029/2002GL016326. (pdf) Roe, G.H., 2002: Modeling orographic precipitation over ice sheets: an assessment over Greenland. J. Glaciology, 48, 70-80. (pdf) Roe, G.H., D.R. Montgomery, and B. Hallet, 2002: Effects of orographic precipitation variations on the concavity of steady-state river profiles. Geology, 30,143-146. (pdf) Risbey, J.S., P.J. Lamb, R.L. Miller, M.C. Morgan, and G.H. Roe, 2002: Elucidating the structure of regional climate scenarios by combining synoptic and dynamic guidance and GCM output. J. Climate, 15, 1036-1050. (pdf) Roe, G.H., and R.S. Lindzen, 2001: The mutual interaction between continental-scale ice sheets and atmospheric stationary waves. J. Climate, 14, 1450-1465. (pdf) Roe, G.H., and R.S. Lindzen, 2001: A one-dimensional model for the interaction between ice sheets and atmospheric stationary waves. Climate Dynamics, 17, 479-487. (pdf) Roe, G.H., and M.R. Allen, 1999: Competing explanations for the 100,000-yr ice age cycle. Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 2259-2262. (pdf) Lindzen, R.S., and G.H. Roe, 1997: The effect of concentrated PV gradients on stationary waves: correction, J. Atmos. Sci., 54, 1815-1818. (pdf) Roe, G.H., and R.S. Lindzen, 1996: Baroclinic adjustment in a two level model with barotropic shear, J. Atmos. Sci., 53, 2749-2754. 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